Title : The impact of climate change on agriculture in the Republic of Tajikistan
Abstract:
This article examines various aspects of climate change and its impact on agriculture. The impact of climate change on precipitation reduction and other hydrometeorological factors is discussed. The study found that rising temperatures in the Central Asian region have reduced annual precipitation and accelerated the rapid melting of glaciers in mountainous areas.
According to the study, the average air temperature in the Republic of Tajikistan is increasing by 0.5°C to 1.0°C per decade. This process leads to reduced water runoff during the summer, further exacerbating water shortages in agriculture.
The analysis revealed that water shortages during crop cultivation lead to the loss of 18,000 to 20,000 hectares of irrigated land annually. This factor not only impacts agricultural production but also weakens the economic sustainability of farm households. At the same time, global warming is leading to reduced crop yields in dryland and irrigated areas, increasing the risk of food insecurity in the coming years.
At the same time, climate change and water shortages in agriculture are having a serious impact on the country's food security. Research has shown that, due to anthropogenic and meteorological factors, the agricultural sector in Tajikistan is losing up to 150,000 tons of wheat annually due to the exclusion of irrigated land from agricultural production, and up to $250 million in imports are required to compensate for this shortfall.
In the Republic of Tajikistan, between 1991 and 2021, annual losses of total agricultural production due to natural disasters and hydrometeorological events amounted to more than one-third. In particular, the droughts of 2000 and 2011, characterized by water shortages, low precipitation, and reduced snow cover in high-mountain areas, led to a 10–30% reduction in grain yields in many regions, and in some cases even more, compared to previous years.
This situation demonstrates that climate change can have serious economic and social consequences and further highlights the need to develop and implement adaptation strategies, rational water resource management, and the use of water-saving technologies in agriculture. Thus, the study results highlight the need for adaptation measures, improved water use efficiency, the implementation of water-saving technologies, and the development of water resource management strategies.
