Title : Seasonal forecast of precipitation during winter season using Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) over Ethiopia
Abstract:
The early warning of the climate seasonal forecast is significant. It can effects the country’s risk management preparedness and its socio-economic sectors such as its energy administration, agricultural management, health, tourism planning , disaster forecasts and protection, water resource management, Information, and food security. A long-range forecast for Ethiopia is conducted with the latest version of the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT). Therefore, a reliable seasonal forecasting technique is presented for taking adaptation measures for sustainable management of agriculture, water resources in Ethiopia. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), developed by the International Research Institute of University of Columbia is made use of making seasonal weather forecasts for Ethiopia. It uses Canonical Correlation Analysis, in which predictors and predictands are involved in making forecasts using the Model Output Statistics technique. The model is trained with 30 years of rainfall data retrieved from Meteorological observatories in Ethiopia, sea surface temperature, zonal wind speed and mean sea-level pressure Geopotential height of reanalysis data. Climate Predictability Tool seems to be a better tool for predicting rainfall of the northern part Ethiopia Surface Temperature as a predictor. ROC score showed good score, first, for below normal category (0.81) followed by above normal category (0.65), normal category, the low ROC score is given (0.5).
Keywords: Seasonal forecast, Climate Predictability Tool, Canonical Correlation Analysis, Ethiopia.
